Free - Beyond Collapse

Thursday, July 29, 2010

A Young Man's Solution to the US Economic Crisis


Written by NewAmericaNow

I recently took the family on an outing to the local lakeside beach. While we were there, I made some shish kabobs and grilled pineapple with a sugar topping for dessert. A wonderful time had by all. My youngest of three sons, Hunter, who is nine years old, turns to me with eyes of excitement and says, “Why don’t we come here tomorrow and sell this stuff to people on the beach and make a lot of money!!!”. Both my wife and I looked at each other with proud smiles on our faces about the little entrepreneur we had in our midst.

I had to explain that it wasn’t that easy and that he would have to pay for a license and permit from the government to do that. Looking puzzled, he slowly looked down at the sand while he enjoyed his food and after a few moments of deep thought he looked up and said, “Dad, why do we need Government anyway?” I smiled once more and congratulated him on his question because wiser men than I have been asking this very question since the dawn of time. I tried to explain to him that different people answer that same question very differently. I tried to use sports as an analogy. Some people think government should be a Referee and make sure everyone plays by the rules but at the same time not interfere with the game. Some people, however, think that government should be the “Captain” of the team, making sure everyone is doing what they are suppose to do, while at the same time being very involved in how the game is played. He nodded and smiled with eyes squinting while looking at the water.

Hunter then turned to meet my eyes with his and asked “Isn’t this a free Country?” Yes, it is, I replied. He disagreed, “No it’s not Dad, not really.” Why do you say that? “Well because… you have to wear your seatbelt or you’ll get in trouble with the Policeman if he sees you, right?” he said with a grin. Yes, that’s true, but it’s suppose to be for your own good, I said. Hunter quickly shot back, “If your free, shouldn’t you be able to decide what is good or bad for yourself.” I laughed pretty hard, thinking; we’ve got a little Libertarian here.

”Dad, Why do people need permits to sell food here?” he asks. Well because the government is acting like the “Captain” on the team, making sure that you follow rules so you don’t get people sick. “Does Mommy have a license?, he asked. No, she doesn’t need one. “How come? Sometimes I get sick from her food”, laughing while he looks over at his insulted mom. Well, because she is family and only strangers that sell you food need a license. “What if someone with a license makes you sick?” He quickly asks. Then those people get in trouble. “Dad?” he says. “You know all those people that are out of work right now and need a job.” Yes, I replied. “The government should get rid of all these stupid rules so people can make money on the beach selling food and the only people that should get in trouble are the ones that make you sick, not that anyone is going to buy from them again anyway”. “I think that the government should be a Referee because Government doesn’t play very fair”. I couldn’t agree more buddy, I couldn’t agree more.

Wednesday, July 14, 2010

The New Doom: A Second Wave of Economic Pessimism Spreading Outside Wonkdom


By Max Abelson
July 13, 2010

"Life is such a fucking disaster," a prominent New York hedge fund manager said recently. "We all live in some kind of world we create for ourselves. And I think that what happened is that built into that world were very enlarged expectations about what life was going to be. There's been this sensation of excessive expectation that, frankly, became unsustainable."

He had just returned from his ranch in the wilderness of central Idaho. "I just like it because it's massively low human density. It would be a place you could hole up in. But, gosh, I hope that doesn't happen."

Last week, not very far from the hedge fund manager's ranch, the billionaire John Malone gave a little-noticed interview to The Wall Street Journal from Allen & Co.'s annual Sun Valley conference. Asked about the biggest risks to Liberty, his media conglomerate, Mr. Malone said his concern was this country's survival. "We have a retreat that's right on the Quebec border. We own 18 miles on the border, so we can cross. Anytime we want to, we can get away."

His wife is more concerned: She's already moved her personal cash to Australia and Canada. "She wants to have a place to go," said Mr. Malone, No. 400 on this year's Forbes list of the richest people in the world, "if things blow up here."

Before the financial crisis, furious pessimism about the national economy started with a small and mostly scholarly group of doomsayers, like N.Y.U.'s Nouriel Roubini and Yale's Robert Shiller. But that pessimism has now gone mainstream, spreading from wonks in finance to the city's daily conversation as last year's rebound drifts further away. Growth is slow; unemployment is enormous; the world feels sludgy. It won't help if banks post withered profits later this week, as they're expected to.

Part of what makes this second wave of gloom different is the sense that the rot isn't going anywhere. You read through The Times and worry that the country will sink into a third depression-Paul Krugman said a few weeks ago that it already has-unless the U.S. government does something serious. But then you think about where money for another stimulus would come from, and what will happen if trillion-dollar deficits get worse.

"I think that a lot of people are becoming realistic over the outlook, because let's face facts," said David Rosenberg, the chief economist and strategist at the investment firm Gluskin Sheff. "It's going to leave some pretty deep emotional scars, don't you think?"

Still, optimism lives. After this month's Times profile of Robert Prechter, the forecaster who says we've begun the worst market decline in something like 300 years, Mr. Krugman's colleague Ross Douthat used his Independence Day column to complain about worrywarts. If Jimmy Carter was wrong about shortages, grim sacrifice and an energy emergency, he said, the new pessimists are, too.

HUMANS HAVE THIS poignant desire to feel that we're in control," the hedge fund manager said. "I know there will be abrupt change."

"We have Ben Bernanke, who has figured it all out; but you and I know he's just guessing," said Mr. Shiller, the Yale professor. The first edition of his book Irrational Exuberance warned in 2000 about a stock market bubble, and the second edition in 2005 predicted the real estate collapse. "When you see something like the BP oil spill, you know we're just plunging headlong into the future without knowing what we're doing."

"If you've got job security and wealth preservation under lethal pressure, then you're going to take the negativism into a place that it hasn't been before," Stephen Roach, Morgan Stanley's non-executive Asia chairman and the firm's former chief economist, said. "TARP, zero interest rates, trillion-dollar budget deficits, you name it, we've thrown anything we can at the system. And that has been successful to a limited extent at stopping the bleeding, but it has not really allowed the patient to get up off the table and resume a normal life again."

One problem is that there isn't a consensus about what our catastrophes are, or how they can be fixed. Mr. Roach and Mr. Krugman, for example, have feuded this year over China. (One said a baseball bat should be taken to the other.) This week, Lloyd's of London and the monolithic English think tank Chatham House warned about peak oil, the semi-apocalyptic moment when the world's oil production will max out and then decline. Not preparing for the new energy realty, they say, will have "potentially catastrophic consequences."

On Friday, just before that report was published, the blog Zero Hedge, a kind of global hub for catastrophists, posted a "wall of worry." The American government, said the first of 50 factoids about the economy, is projected to issue about the same debt this year as the other governments of the world combined.

"Few appreciated that the shift would be as deeply structural as it was demonstrated to be," the site's editor, who writes pseudonymously as Tyler Durden, said in an email. "With trillions of dollars spent to prevent an all-out economic collapse we have only managed to buy under two years of time and the economy is once again starting to roll over."

The hedge fund manager said he doesn't even trust gold. "It's worthless if the social fabric tears," he said. "We're going to have to do something different, before we get down to where it's really bad."

Article source

Wednesday, July 7, 2010

Global Economic and Social Collapse Of “Staggering Proportions” Warned Imminent

By: Sorcha Faal, and as reported to her Western Subscribers


Grim economic warnings are being sounded from the United States today after one of their top market forecasters and social theorists named Robert Prechter advised everyone to abandon the stock markets over what he says will be one of the largest financial crashes (of staggering proportions) to occur in over 300 years rivaling the GreatDepression, the Panic of 1873, and the collapse of the South Sea Bubble in 1720, a crash so catastrophic it deterred people from buying stocks for 100 years.


Important to note about Prechter’s dire warning is its being based upon what is called the Elliott Wave Principle developed by Ralph Nelson Elliott (1871-1948) that is a form of technical analysis that investors use to forecast trends in the financial markets by identifying extremes in investor psychology, highs and lows in prices, and other collective activities.



Elliott, in turn, had based his new principle on the findings of the great Russian evolutionary theorist Peter Kropotkin (1842-1921) who in his book titled Mutual Aid: A Factor of Evolution” countered Charles Darwin's (1809-1882) survival of the fittest evolutionary theory by concluding that cooperation and mutual aid are as important in the evolution of the species as competition and mutual strife, if not more so.

Elliott was also greatly influenced by Kropotkin’s greatest work The Conquest of Bread
that lays bare the defects of the economic systems known as Feudalism and Capitalism by showing how they thrive on and maintain poverty and scarcity, in spite of being in a time of abundance thanks to technology, while promoting privilege.



Simply put, where Darwin's theories advocated a World where men are pitted against their fellow men for survival, Kropotkin stated that only through mutual cooperation with each other
could our human race survive and prosper with no man every having to live in poverty or despair.



Kropotkin, though being praised by many in his lifetime, including the great Irish poet and author Oscar Wilde (1854-1900) who called him a man with a soul of that beautiful white Christ which seems coming out of Russia, the "Anarchist Prince", as Kropotkin became to be known, saw his theories lose out those of Darwin's who were backed by the powerful and moneyed interests of the Western Empires.



What spurred Elliot's great interest in Kropotkin's theories is that the great Russian had not only predicted the Panic of 1873, but also the Great Depression. Kropotkin, however, did not live to see the Great Depression but Elliot did, and by expanding on Kropotkin’s theories discovered that while stock market prices may appear random and unpredictable, they actually follow
predictable, natural laws and can be measured and forecast using Fibonacci numbers



So completely did Elliot examine and expand upon Kropotkin that in 1946, two years before his death, he published one of the most important books of the 20th Century titled "Nature's Law - The Secret of the Universe" that, in part, shows:



"Rhythm In Nature, Egyptian Pyramids size - ratios and scaling are based on Natural Laws involving Fibonacci numbers, Sunflower research on how Sunflowers and their seeds conform to exact Fibonacci ratios, How the Washington Monument & US History is ruled by Natural Laws & Fibonacci numbers, Wave knowledge can be applied to stocks-bonds-grains- cotton -coffee & others, Stock market cycles and waves, Corrections, Complex corrections, Triangles, Thrust breakouts, Wave extensions, Correct wave counting, Sideways movements, Irregular tops, Scaling of charts, 13-year triangles, Dow Jones Industrial Avg Analysis and charts, How retracements and patterns maintain 62% ratios, Price of gold, Waves in gold prices, Gold chart and waves for 685 years from the year 1250 thru 1932.



Human activities and patterns also run in waves, more Dow Jones and London Industrials chart analysis, Dow Jones Railroad Index chart and analysis from 1906 thru 1944, Why news events are merely the tardy recognition of natural laws and waves, Natural laws discount the value of sudden major events, Detailed suggestions on maintaining charts, Daily range charts, Hourly charts, Chart paper and chart size, Weekly range charts, Monthly charts, Investment timing, Wave analysis foretells markets future direction, The fact sudden news has little long term effect because it's already reflected in the waves and cycles."



It goes without saying, in the Western World at least, and especially the United States, that Prechter"s dire warning is going virtually unreported on even as the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) and
the American stock markets are mirroring those of the Great Depression year 1932 and pointing to an even greater economic apocalypse to come.



Even worse for the American people are new reports showing their National Debt by the end of the year will soar to its highest level since the end of World War II and represent a crushing 62% of their entire National economy.



Unlike those years after World War II, however, when America was the sole economic and industrial powerhouse of a World nearly completely shattered by that conflict, the United States today stands on the precipice of near total economic collapse as over 20% of its workers remain unemployed, nearly 8 million jobs are said to be lost forever, nearly 1 in 3 of their homes are in foreclosure, all of these factors leading the Nobel Prize winning American economist Paul Krugman to warn this past week the US was now entering its Third Great Depression and that "tens of millions of unemployed workers, will go jobless for years, many will never work again".



And as bad as it is now it is going to get worse as the ECRI leading indicator produced by the Economic Cycle Research Institute plummeted yet again last week to -6.9, dropping
faster that at any time in the post-World War II era
, and pointing to a contraction in the US by the end of the year as bond traders begin warning that the US Federal Reserve is preparing for a "monster" printing of American dollars to keep their economy from totally collapsing.



The United Nations, growing increasingly concerned over the US economy, released a report this past week calling for abandoning the US dollar as the main Global reserve currency saying it has been unable to safeguard its value.



Interesting to note in all of these events, and exactly like Elliot"s wave principal and Kropotkin"s theories have warned, "the rich grew richer last year, even as the World endured the worst recession in decades", according to the latest Merrill Lynch Capgemini World Wealth Report.



Kropotkin once stated that "there are no shortcuts to moral insight" and that "the answers to such questions must be found within us, not in nature”. Perhaps some of the wisest words we can ponder on as not only this great economic crisis faces us all, but also the catastrophic oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico, both which are surely going to change our World forevermore.



© July 7, 2010 EU and US all rights reserved



Ed. Note: Western governments and their intelligence services' actively campaign against the information found in these reports so as not to alarm their citizens about the many catastrophic Earth changes and events to come, a stance that the Sisters of Sorcha Faal strongly disagrees with in believing that it is every human beings right to know the truth. Due to our missions conflicts with that of those governments, the responses of their "agents" against us has been a longstanding misinformation/misdirection campaign designed to discredit and which is addressed in the report Who Is Sorcha Faal?

Thursday, July 1, 2010

Dedicated To The American People- Happy Independence Day



If you don't like what you have, Change it. Let your Representatives know you are displeased. Write them at http://www.contactingthecongress.org/
This video is dedicated to the American People that excercise their First Ammendment rights and Protest and hold picket signs when things need to be addressed instead of sitting home and burying their heads in the sand.
They are the true patriots in this land!!!

Tuesday, April 27, 2010

The Value-Added Tax Is Not the Answer


by Murray N. Rothbard

One of the great and striking facts of recent months is the growing resistance to further taxes on the part of the long-suffering American public. Every individual, business, or organization in American society acquires its revenue by the peaceful and voluntary sale of productive goods and services to the consumer, or by voluntary donations from people who wish to further whatever the group or organization is doing. Only government acquires its income by the coercive imposition of taxes. The welcome new element is the growing resistance to further tax exactions by the American people.

In its endless quest for more and better booty, the government has contrived to tax everything it can find, and in countless ways. Its motto can almost be said to be "If it moves, tax it!"

Every income, every activity, every piece of property, every person in the land is subject to a battery of tax extortions, direct and indirect, visible and invisible. There is of course nothing new about this; what is new is that the accelerating drive of the government to tax has begun to run into determined resistance on the part of the American citizenry.

It is no secret that the income tax, the favorite of government for its ability to reach in and openly extract funds from everyone's income, has reached its political limit in this country. The poor and the middle class are now taxed so heavily that the federal government, in particular, dares not try to extort even more ruinous levies.

The outraged taxpayer, after all, can easily become the outraged voter. How outraged the voters can be was brought home to the politicians last November, when locality after locality throughout the country rose in wrath to vote down proposed bond issues, even for the long-sacrosanct purpose of expanding public schools.

Defeat in New York
The most heartening example — and one that can only give us all hope for a free America — was in New York City, where every leading politician of both parties, aided and abetted by a heavily financed and demagogic TV campaign, urged the voters to support a transportation bond issue. Yet the bond issue was overwhelmingly defeated — and this lesson for all of our politicians was a sharp and salutary one.

Finally, the property tax, the mainstay of local government as the income tax is at the federal level, is now generally acknowledged to have a devastating effect on the nation's housing. The property tax discourages improvements and investments in housing, has driven countless Americans out of their homes, and has led to spiraling tax abandonments in, for example, New York City, with a resulting deterioration of blighted slum housing.

Government, in short, has reached its tax limit; the people were finally saying an emphatic "No!" to any further rise in their tax burden. What was ever-encroaching government going to do? The nation's economists, most of whom are ever eager to serve as technicians for the expansion of state power, were at hand with an answer, a new rabbit out of the hat to save the day for Big Government.

They pointed out that the income tax and property tax were too evident, too visible, and that so are the generally hated sales tax and excise taxes on specific commodities. But how about a tax that remains totally hidden, that the consumer or average American cannot identify and pinpoint as the object of his wrath? It was this deliciously hidden quality that brought forth the rapt attention of the Nixon administration, the "Value Added Tax" (VAT).

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The great individualist Frank Chodorov, once an editor of Human Events, explained clearly the hankering of government for hidden taxation:

It is not the size of the yield, nor the certainty of collection, which gives indirect taxation [read: VAT] preeminence in the state's scheme of appropriation. Its most commendable quality is that of being surreptitious. It is taking, so to speak, while the victim is not looking.

Those who strain themselves to give taxation a moral character are under obligation to explain the state's preoccupation with hiding taxes in the price of goods. (Frank Chodorov, Out of Step, Devin-Adair, 1962, p. 220)

The VAT is essentially a national sales tax, levied in proportion to the goods and services produced and sold. But its delightful concealment comes from the fact that the VAT is levied at each step of the way in the production process: on farmer, manufacturer, jobber and wholesaler, and only slightly on the retailer.

The difference is that when a consumer pays a 7 percent sales tax on every purchase, his indignation rises and he points the finger of resentment at the politicians in charge of government; but if the 7 percent tax is hidden and paid by every firm rather than just at retail, the inevitably higher prices will be charged, not to the government where it belongs, but to grasping businessmen and avaricious trade unions.

While consumers, businessmen, and unions all blame each other for inflation like Kilkenny cats, Papa government is able to preserve its lofty moral purity, and to join in denouncing all of these groups for "causing inflation."

It is now easy to see the enthusiasm of the federal government and its economic advisers for the new scheme for a VAT. It allows the government to extract many more funds from the public — to bring about higher prices, lower production, and lower incomes — and yet totally escape the blame, which can easily be loaded on business, unions, or the consumer as the particular administration sees fit.

The VAT is, in short, a looming gigantic swindle upon the American public, and it is therefore vitally important that it not pass. For if it does, the encroaching menace of Big Government will get another, and prolonged, lease on life.

One of the selling points for VAT is that it is supposed only to replace the property tax for its prime task of financing local public schools. Any relief of the onerous burden of the property tax sounds good to many Americans.

But anyone familiar with the history of government or taxation should know the trap in this sort of promise. For we should all know by now that taxes never go down. Government, in its insatiable quest for new funds, never relaxes its grip on any source of revenue.

You know and I know that the property tax, even if replaced for school financing, will not really go down; it will simply be shifted to other expensive boondoggles of local government. And we also know full well that the VAT will not long be limited to financing the schools; its vast potential (a 10 percent VAT would bring in about $60 billion in revenue) is just too tempting for the government not to use it to the hilt, and, in the famous words of New Dealer Harry Hopkins, "to tax and tax, spend and spend, elect and elect."

Let us now delve more deeply into the specific nature of the VAT. A given percentage (the Nixon administration proposal is 3 percent) is levied, not on retail sales, but on the sales of each stage of production, with the business firm deducting from its liability the tax embodied in the purchases that he makes from previous stages. It is thus a sales tax hidden at each stage of production, from the farmer or miner down to the retailer.

A "Regressive" Tax
The most common criticism is that the VAT, like the sales tax, is a "regressive" tax, falling largely on the poor and the middle class, who pay a greater percentage of their income than the rich. This is a proper and important criticism, especially coming at a time when the middle class is already suffering from an excruciating tax burden.

The Nixon administration proposes to alleviate the burden on the poor by rebating the taxes through the income tax. While this may alleviate the tax burden on the poor, the middle class, which pays most of our taxes anyway, will hardly be benefited.


"Furthermore, there is a more sinister element in the rebate plan: for some of the poor will get cash payments from the IRS, thereby bringing in the disastrous principle of the guaranteed annual income (FAP) through the back door."Furthermore, there is a more sinister element in the rebate plan: for some of the poor will get cash payments from the IRS, thereby bringing in the disastrous principle of the guaranteed annual income (FAP) through the back door.

But the VAT is in many ways far worse than a sales tax, apart from its hidden and clandestine nature. In the first place, the VAT advocates claim that since each firm and stage of production will pay in proportion to its "value added" to production, there will be no misallocation effects along the way.

But this ignores the fact that every business firm will be burdened by the cost of innumerable record keeping and collection for the government. The result will be an inexorable push of the business system toward "vertical mergers" and the reduction of competition.

Suppose, for example, that a crude-oil producer adds the value of $1,000, and that an oil refiner adds another $1,000, and suppose for simplicity that the VAT is 10 percent. Theoretically, it should make no difference if the firms are separate or "integrated"; in the former case, each firm would pay $100 to the government; in the latter, the integrated firm would pay $200. But since this comforting theory ignores the substantial costs of record keeping and the collection, in practice if the crude-oil firm and the oil refiner were integrated into one firm, making only one payment, their costs would be lower.

Vertical Mergers
Hence, vertical mergers will be induced by the VAT, after which the Antitrust Division of the Department of Justice would begin to clamor that the free market is producing "monopoly" and that the merger must be broken by government fiat.

The costs of record keeping and payment pose another grave problem for the market economy. Obviously, small firms are less able to bear these costs than big ones, and so the VAT will be a powerful burden on small business, and hamper it gravely in the competitive struggle. It is no wonder that some big businesses look with favor on the VAT!

There is another grave problem with VAT, a problem that the Western European countries which have adopted VAT are already struggling with.

In the VAT, every firm sends its invoices to the federal government, and gets credit for the VAT embodied in its invoices for the goods bought from other firms. The result is an irresistible opening for cheating, and in Western Europe there are special firms whose business is to write out fake invoices which can reduce the tax liabilities of their "customer." Those businesses more willing to cheat will then be favored in the competitive struggle of the market.

A further crucial flaw exists in the VAT, a flaw which will bring much grief to our economic system. Most people assume that such a tax will simply be passed on in higher prices to the consumer. But the process is not that simple. While, in the long run, prices to consumers will undoubtedly rise, there will be two other important effects: a large short-run reduction in business profits, and a long-run fall in wage incomes.

The critical blow to profits, while perhaps only "short-run," will take place at a time of business recession, when many firms and industries are suffering from low profits and even from business losses. The low-profit firms and industries will be severely hit by the imposition of VAT, and the result will be to cripple any possible recovery and plunge us deeper into recession. Furthermore, new and creative firms, which usually begin small and with low profits, will be similarly crippled before they have scarcely begun.

The VAT will also have a severe, and so far unacknowledged, effect in aggravating unemployment, which is already at a high recession rate. The grievous impact on unemployment will be twofold. In the first place, any firm that buys, say, machinery, can deduct the embodied VAT from its own tax liability; but if it hires workers, it can make no such deduction. The result will be to spur over-mechanization and the firing of laborers.

Secondly, part of the long-run effect of VAT will be to lower the demand for labor and wage incomes; but since unions and the minimum-wage laws are able to keep wage rates up indefinitely, the impact will be a rise in unemployment. Thus, from two separate and compounding directions, VAT will aggravate an already serious unemployment problem.

Hence, the American public will pay a high price indeed for the clandestine nature of the VAT. We will be mulcted of a large and increasing amount of funds, extracted in a hidden but no less burdensome manner, just at a time when the government seemed to have reached the limit of the tax burden that the people will allow. It will be funds that will aggravate the burdens on the already long-suffering average middle-class American. And to top it off, the VAT will cripple profits; injure competition, small business, and new creative firms; raise prices; and greatly aggravate unemployment. It will pit consumers against business, and intensify conflicts within society.

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One of the Parkinson's justly famous "laws" is that, for government, "expenditure rises to meet income." If we allow the government to find and exploit new sources of tax funds, it will simply use those funds to spend more and more, and aggravate the already fearsome burden of Big Government on the American economy and the American citizen.

The only way to reduce Big Government is to cut its tax revenue, and to force it to stay within its more limited means. We must see to it that government has less tax funds to play with, not more. The first step on this road to lesser government and greater freedom is to see the VAT for the swindle that it is, and to send it down to defeat.


Murray N. Rothbard (1926–1995) was dean of the Austrian School. He was an economist, economic historian, and libertarian political philosopher.